Bitcoin halving explained: what changes, what it does not

The bitcoin halving is the moment the network cuts in half the reward paid to whoever mines a block, scheduled every 210,000 blocks, or roughly every four years. The fourth halving took place on April 20, 2024, at block 840,000, and reduced the subsidy from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per block. The fifth is due at block 1,050,000, around April 2028, based on the chain height recorded by the mempool.space explorer on September 30, 2026.

In short

• The halving reduces new supply: about 450 BTC enter the market per day today, and about 225 will after 2028.
• After each of the four previous halvings the price was higher 12 months later, but four cases are not a statistic and nothing forces the fifth to repeat them.
• For an investor, the halving is a calendar entry, not a buy signal. The decision is still position size, horizon and custody.

What the halving changes in supply

The protocol caps issuance at 21 million bitcoins, and the bitcoin.org FAQ states the rule plainly: the number of new coins created each year is halved at fixed intervals until issuance stops. The network produces a block every ten minutes on average, about 144 blocks a day. At 3.125 BTC per block, roughly 450 BTC per day reach the market. On September 30, 2026, mempool.space showed block 969,337, which puts the coins already issued at about 20.09 million, 95.7% of the total. That left 80,663 blocks until the next cut.

The table below lists the four halvings and the estimated fifth. Prices are the daily average from the market-price series at Blockchain.com, retrieved on September 30, 2026.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What the halving does not guarantee

The naive reading of the table is that the price rises after the cut. The numbers deserve more care. The 12-month change was about 7,600% in the first cycle, 285% in the second, 538% in the third and 33% in the fourth. Six months after the 2024 halving, the price was up 7%. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Each cycle carried factors that had nothing to do with the halving. In 2020, central banks flooded markets with liquidity during the pandemic. In January 2024, three months before the fourth cut, spot bitcoin ETFs were approved in the United States and brought new demand. With four observations, separating the halving effect from those events is not possible.

There is also the argument that the cut is already priced in. The date is known years ahead, and a market that trades 24 hours a day has plenty of time to absorb a predictable supply reduction. What the halving cannot anticipate is demand, and demand is what moves the price in the short run.

The miners' math

Miners are the ones who feel the halving in their cash flow. On September 30, 2026, the network hashrate was about 979 exahashes per second, according to the three-day average at mempool.space, and bitcoin traded at US$ 83,898 on CoinGecko the same day. The 450 BTC daily subsidy was worth about US$ 37.8 million a day, split among all miners in proportion to their computing power.

After April 2028, the same work will yield about 225 BTC a day. For revenue to hold, the price needs to double, transaction fees need to grow, or part of the miners need to switch off. When machines leave, the network difficulty adjusts every 2,016 blocks, about two weeks, and those who stay regain share. The network does not stop; the miner with expensive electricity pays the bill. Why Bitcoin keeps this model while Ethereum abandoned mining is covered in proof of work vs proof of stake.

What it means for your plan

An investor who buys bitcoin because of the halving is betting that history repeats. An investor with a plan first decides how much of the portfolio can sit in an asset that has fallen more than 50% in several cycles, sets the horizon, and only then picks the entry. The halving enters that plan as a date that may change issuance and miner revenue, and nothing more.

Three practical points. First, buying in installments dilutes the risk of getting the date right or wrong. Second, custody must be sorted out before the purchase, because a bull cycle attracts scams and a badly set up wallet loses everything at once. Third, for residents of Brazil, sales above R$ 35,000 in a month generate taxable capital gains, and the bull cycle is exactly when most people sell. Answers on custody and tax are in the FAQ.

The crypto-asset market involves high risks, including significant volatility and the possibility of losing the invested capital. This article is educational and does not recommend buying or selling any asset. How Vault structures a crypto allocation inside a total portfolio is described in crypto advisory: how it works.

Frequently asked questions

When is the next bitcoin halving?

At block 1,050,000. On September 30, 2026 the network was at block 969,337, with blocks every ten minutes on average, which points to April 2028. The exact date depends on the mining pace and is only confirmed close to the event.

Does the bitcoin price always rise after a halving?

In the four previous cases the price was higher 12 months later, but the rise was smaller in each cycle and other factors acted at the same time. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Does the halving affect bitcoin I already hold?

It does not change your balance and requires no action. It reduces the number of new coins entering the market and changes miner revenue. Any effect on price comes from how the market reacts.

Do other cryptocurrencies have halvings?

Yes, networks that copied Bitcoin's issuance model, such as Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash. Ethereum has no halving: its issuance is set by proof-of-stake rules and has changed several times through protocol upgrades.

Let's talk

If the 2028 halving has entered your calculations, the useful step is turning the expectation into a plan: how much to allocate, over what period and with which custody. Vault Capital is a securities advisory firm authorized by the CVM under CVM Resolution 19/2021 and never takes custody of client assets. The first conversation is about placing bitcoin correctly inside your total wealth, with no price forecast attached.